Figma at $60B: Bubble or Decade-Class Compounder?
Inside the 22-page memo breaking down the $60B SaaS monster Adobe tried to buy.
Adobe offered $20 billion to eliminate a threat.
The deal failed.
Now that threat is going public.
Its name?
Figma.
And what most investors don’t realize is…
This isn’t just a design tool.
It’s a workflow revolution — hiding inside a UI.
The Real Reason Adobe Offered $20B
Figma isn’t eating Adobe’s lunch.
It’s eating the entire kitchen.
Because it did three things legacy players like Adobe, Sketch, and even Canva didn’t:
Browser-native: No installs. Just a link.
Multiplayer from Day 1: Like Google Docs — but for design.
Team-first workflow: Designers. PMs. Engineers. All in one file.
When you combine collaboration + workflow + real-time updates, you get one thing:
A product that’s nearly impossible to rip out.
The Metrics Are Insane
Still think it’s just a startup?
Let the numbers slap you:
📈 132% Net Dollar Retention
Existing customers spend 32% more year over year — before adding new logos.💰 88+% Gross Margins
SaaS heaven. Pure cash machine.💥 95% of the Fortune 500 use Figma
It spread bottom-up like Slack. And now it’s embedded.🧠 Founder-led with 50%+ voting power
Dylan Field didn’t take the Adobe payday. He’s still building.
And get this…
Figma became a billion-dollar business on just ~$130M raised before the Adobe offer.
That’s capital efficiency you rarely see in today’s venture-funded madness.
But Here’s the Question Investors Need to Ask:
Figma is going public.
Valuation? Now at around $60 billion.
So…
Is this a bubble?
Or a decade-class compounder?
That’s what we set out to answer.
We Wrote a 22-Page Deep Dive Memo
This isn’t a “hot take.”
It’s not a tweet thread.
It’s not a clickbait YouTube video.
This is a full investor-grade breakdown
Inside, we walk through:
✅ The moat (and how it keeps widening)
✅ The business model, retention loop, and viral PLG engine
✅ Detailed financials (including adjusted FCF, margins, Rule of 40, and IRR math)
✅ What happens if growth slows… or AI eats the junior designer market
✅ Whether Buffett would buy it today
✅ And a brutally honest valuation verdict
Spoiler: The Business Is a Monster
But the stock might not be — yet.
If you buy it at $60B?
You're paying 330x free cash flow.
That’s a Ferrari price tag for a company doing $900M in ARR.
Yes, the compounding engine is real.
Yes, the cash flows are coming.
But if you overpay for perfection, even a great business can bleed you.
Which is why the final verdict isn’t black or white.
It’s this:
Buy the business. Wait on the price.
Here’s What You’ll Learn
By the end of the memo, you’ll walk away with:
A real-world example of what a SaaS monopoly in motion looks like
A mental model for how PLG companies expand across org charts
A checklist to evaluate future IPOs like Figma — using first-principles, not hype
It’s the exact framework I use when evaluating whether a business is worth holding for 10+ years.
And here’s the best part:
📘 You can download it for free at this link
https://hoangquoc.gumroad.com/l/figma-memo
Who Should Read This?
If you’re…
A long-term investor looking for the next $10B→$100B story
A startup founder studying world-class product strategy
A finance-curious builder who wants to understand “why great companies win”
…this memo is for you.
Even if you never buy the stock, you’ll walk away smarter.
Final Thought
If Adobe was willing to spend $20 billion to stop Figma…
You owe it to yourself to understand why.
Not just because Figma is the story of this cycle.
But because the playbook it used — bottoms-up PLG, workflow dominance, viral lock-in — will repeat again.
The next Figma is already being built.
The question is whether you’ll recognize it in time.
Start here.
👇
Grab the full Figma memo here.